Really solid analysys here! I agree that the Amazon Brazil news is probably getting overblown. MELI has been dominat in LatAm for decades precisely because they understand the regional logistics challenges, payment preferences, and merchant relationships way better than any foreigner ever could. Amazon waiving fees for a holiday season is just table stakes to even compete, not a real moat threatener. The fintech integration with Mercado Pago is what really sets them apart. When you bundle ecommerce, payments, credit, and logistics all together like that, its incredibly sticky. The fact that their take rate is at all time highs while growing 30% plus tells you the ecosystem is working. I think the new CEO transision might actually be a positive catalyst long term too.
Excellent analysis on MELI's current positioning. The competition narrative from Amazon's Brazil push is overblown - MELI's logistics network and Mercado Pago ecosystem create real switching costs that take years to build. What's particularly compeling about the current setup is the credit business growing 91% YoY while maintaining improving delinquency metrics at 6.7%. That's a sign of strong underwriting discipline even during rapid expansion. The CEO transition is well-planned with Marcos staying as Chairman. At a PEG of 1 for a business with these network effects and still-large addressable market, this selloff looks like a gift.
Superb analysis on both SE and MELI. The juxtaposition of strong fundamentals against technial sell-offs really captures the opportunity here. What strikes me most is how SE's Brazilian expansion for Shopee (30% MAU growth) is directly competing with MELI's home turf, yet both are growing robustly - the TAM is clearly massive. Your point about MELI's take rates at all-time highs (25.2%) despite competitive pressure is particularly reassuring. On SE, the Monee segment's 94% loan growth with stable 1% NPL90 is impressive credit discipline. Both trading near technical support levels with secular growth intact seems like compelling risk/reward. Do you see the Amazon Brazil push as a temporary promotional blitz or a sustained margin pressure for MELI?
Great article!
Thank you Sir!
Just started recommending you! 👍
Awesome write-up!
Thanks Aditya!
Shopeepeepeepeepee 💰
Really solid analysys here! I agree that the Amazon Brazil news is probably getting overblown. MELI has been dominat in LatAm for decades precisely because they understand the regional logistics challenges, payment preferences, and merchant relationships way better than any foreigner ever could. Amazon waiving fees for a holiday season is just table stakes to even compete, not a real moat threatener. The fintech integration with Mercado Pago is what really sets them apart. When you bundle ecommerce, payments, credit, and logistics all together like that, its incredibly sticky. The fact that their take rate is at all time highs while growing 30% plus tells you the ecosystem is working. I think the new CEO transision might actually be a positive catalyst long term too.
Excellent analysis on MELI's current positioning. The competition narrative from Amazon's Brazil push is overblown - MELI's logistics network and Mercado Pago ecosystem create real switching costs that take years to build. What's particularly compeling about the current setup is the credit business growing 91% YoY while maintaining improving delinquency metrics at 6.7%. That's a sign of strong underwriting discipline even during rapid expansion. The CEO transition is well-planned with Marcos staying as Chairman. At a PEG of 1 for a business with these network effects and still-large addressable market, this selloff looks like a gift.
Superb analysis on both SE and MELI. The juxtaposition of strong fundamentals against technial sell-offs really captures the opportunity here. What strikes me most is how SE's Brazilian expansion for Shopee (30% MAU growth) is directly competing with MELI's home turf, yet both are growing robustly - the TAM is clearly massive. Your point about MELI's take rates at all-time highs (25.2%) despite competitive pressure is particularly reassuring. On SE, the Monee segment's 94% loan growth with stable 1% NPL90 is impressive credit discipline. Both trading near technical support levels with secular growth intact seems like compelling risk/reward. Do you see the Amazon Brazil push as a temporary promotional blitz or a sustained margin pressure for MELI?
What's your price target for MELI and SE?