I think DIDIY is a far better value than GRAB. DIDIY generates much higher revenue than GRAB and is much cheaper than GRAB on almost any valuation metric (other than EV/EBITDA). Basically, DIDIY is much cheaper given regulatory risk and so the growth premia you see in GRAB is not reflected in DIDIY stock price. Over time though DIDIY will only grow more as its balance sheet is much stronger.
What interests me most about Grab is deliveries and FinTech, and as an extension, Mart and Ads. DiDi has none of those to the extent Grab does. It is also facing strong competition in ride-hailing. While valuations may be cheap, it is cheap for a reason.
DIDY US' revenue is actually not that much higher than GRAB US.
DiDi Global Inc. (DIDY US) recognises most of its revenue before deducting drivers' share of the fare.
GRAB US recognises most of its revenue after deducting drivers' share.
In industry terms, DIDIY US reports gross revenue, while GRAB reports net revenue.
If DIDY US applied net revenue accounting similar to GRAB, I estimate its revenue would be roughly USD 8 bn (instead of USD 34 bn). This is only twice of GRAB’s USD 4 bn.
Hey Ruben, great question. I would prefer for them to focus on their FinTech business this year, perhaps doing acquisitions like Validus to expand their offerings. I think entering new verticals will be tempting, but I'm not convinced their lead is strong enough.
ShopeeFood looks to be expanding this year and would put pressure on them. I also believe they should look to acquire as many users as possible in mobility/deliveries while maintaining positive unit economics.
I suspect they have to expand into new verticals. The market in South-east Asia is not as big as Amercia and Europe (UBER US) or China (DIDIY US).
Ride hailing is a difficult industry. Regulatory pressure is strong. On 1 May 2026, President Subianto announced Indonesia will reduce the maximum commission of ride-hailing companies from 20% to only 8%.
The best way out is to expand into other verticals, I believe.
DIDI has a a pretty close to 0 EV. So yes it is very cheap but as you say it is not just valuation that you have to look at. DIDI problem is margins and free cash flow. It has immense completion and pays its drivers too much. It is a state enterprise and suffers from regulatory risk so indeed it has problems but at the same time it doesn’t take much to get to 6> EBIT margins. So profitability can and will improve from a low base. There is significant upside if they can re-list in HK as well. DIDI is not going to re-rate tomorrow but it has massive potential to be a 10 bagger. it’s just that it may be dead money for a while before that happens.
The risk is real and deserves a discount but I think many people miss the bigger picture. China uses the state to subsidize private companies with the intent to create companies that dominate their industry. Just look at the price of Chinese cars compare to American or European cars. It is inevitable that state sponsored Chinese companies will dominate industries given their pricing advantages so i seeState ownership as a double edged sword. Yes there is a governance discount but equally these companies will dominate as result of state support.
I agree this is a long- term position. That said, there is only one issue in my view that needs to be addressed to see a re-rating. If you look at recent results the business is actually doing quite well. DIDI beat consensus easily on domestic China mobility. The real issue is international. They are in a process war with UBER in mobility and Meituan in delivery. They are losing money in international. So the question is how much will they lose and when will the tide turn. Right now no one knows. The consensus is that DIDI is a poor capital allocator and losses in international will continue to grow above the 12B RMB the street thinks is the limit. The street is probably right as SOE’s play for the long haul. I think that a HK listing will happen eventually as soon as the class action law suit is settled so there is upside but to really be 10 bagger they need to sort international.
Thanks for your analysis of Grab Holdings Limited (GRAB US).
Despite its dominance, GRAB seems to struggle with raising its take-rate. Post COVID-19 boom, GRAB’s take-rate has largely plateaued at around 13% to 15%.
UBER, GRAB’s global peer, demonstrates stronger pricing power. It increased its Mobility take-rate from ~20% in 2021 to ~30% by 2025. During the same period, UBER raised its Deliveries take-rate from 18% to 19%.
Why does UBER enjoy higher take-rate? Why can it raise its take-rate faster than GRAB?
I suspect it's because consumers in South-east Asia generally have lower income and are more price-sensitive.
Competition is more intense. In Singapore alone, GRAB faces off against Gojek, TADA, Ryde, etc.
Great work Gab! Grab surely very looks well-positioned to continue their steady and strong growth trajectory in the next few years!
I think DIDIY is a far better value than GRAB. DIDIY generates much higher revenue than GRAB and is much cheaper than GRAB on almost any valuation metric (other than EV/EBITDA). Basically, DIDIY is much cheaper given regulatory risk and so the growth premia you see in GRAB is not reflected in DIDIY stock price. Over time though DIDIY will only grow more as its balance sheet is much stronger.
What interests me most about Grab is deliveries and FinTech, and as an extension, Mart and Ads. DiDi has none of those to the extent Grab does. It is also facing strong competition in ride-hailing. While valuations may be cheap, it is cheap for a reason.
Not2smart,
DIDY US' revenue is actually not that much higher than GRAB US.
DiDi Global Inc. (DIDY US) recognises most of its revenue before deducting drivers' share of the fare.
GRAB US recognises most of its revenue after deducting drivers' share.
In industry terms, DIDIY US reports gross revenue, while GRAB reports net revenue.
If DIDY US applied net revenue accounting similar to GRAB, I estimate its revenue would be roughly USD 8 bn (instead of USD 34 bn). This is only twice of GRAB’s USD 4 bn.
2 ways to look at it;
On a GTV basis DIDI is 3x as large as GRAB
On take rate basis DIDI is 4-5X as large as GRAB.
Great read! I’m currently accumulating shares of GRAB as I think it’s one of my stronger investments.
The consistent growth and clear business plan leaves little room for doubt.
This stock is criminally underrated.
My brother is huge on this — I’ll have to give it a look
Would you like to see them entering new verticals this year ("superapp" thesis) or focus on strengthening the current offerings?
Hey Ruben, great question. I would prefer for them to focus on their FinTech business this year, perhaps doing acquisitions like Validus to expand their offerings. I think entering new verticals will be tempting, but I'm not convinced their lead is strong enough.
ShopeeFood looks to be expanding this year and would put pressure on them. I also believe they should look to acquire as many users as possible in mobility/deliveries while maintaining positive unit economics.
Rubenslash,
I suspect they have to expand into new verticals. The market in South-east Asia is not as big as Amercia and Europe (UBER US) or China (DIDIY US).
Ride hailing is a difficult industry. Regulatory pressure is strong. On 1 May 2026, President Subianto announced Indonesia will reduce the maximum commission of ride-hailing companies from 20% to only 8%.
The best way out is to expand into other verticals, I believe.
I discuss these in detail here: https://www.angsanaanderson.com/p/grab-not-as-cash-generative-as-you?r=5rl2u5
DIDI has a a pretty close to 0 EV. So yes it is very cheap but as you say it is not just valuation that you have to look at. DIDI problem is margins and free cash flow. It has immense completion and pays its drivers too much. It is a state enterprise and suffers from regulatory risk so indeed it has problems but at the same time it doesn’t take much to get to 6> EBIT margins. So profitability can and will improve from a low base. There is significant upside if they can re-list in HK as well. DIDI is not going to re-rate tomorrow but it has massive potential to be a 10 bagger. it’s just that it may be dead money for a while before that happens.
What do you think of the risks from a Chinese company listed in the US? Thanks
The risk is real and deserves a discount but I think many people miss the bigger picture. China uses the state to subsidize private companies with the intent to create companies that dominate their industry. Just look at the price of Chinese cars compare to American or European cars. It is inevitable that state sponsored Chinese companies will dominate industries given their pricing advantages so i seeState ownership as a double edged sword. Yes there is a governance discount but equally these companies will dominate as result of state support.
Nice
I agree this is a long- term position. That said, there is only one issue in my view that needs to be addressed to see a re-rating. If you look at recent results the business is actually doing quite well. DIDI beat consensus easily on domestic China mobility. The real issue is international. They are in a process war with UBER in mobility and Meituan in delivery. They are losing money in international. So the question is how much will they lose and when will the tide turn. Right now no one knows. The consensus is that DIDI is a poor capital allocator and losses in international will continue to grow above the 12B RMB the street thinks is the limit. The street is probably right as SOE’s play for the long haul. I think that a HK listing will happen eventually as soon as the class action law suit is settled so there is upside but to really be 10 bagger they need to sort international.
GabGrowth,
Thanks for your analysis of Grab Holdings Limited (GRAB US).
Despite its dominance, GRAB seems to struggle with raising its take-rate. Post COVID-19 boom, GRAB’s take-rate has largely plateaued at around 13% to 15%.
UBER, GRAB’s global peer, demonstrates stronger pricing power. It increased its Mobility take-rate from ~20% in 2021 to ~30% by 2025. During the same period, UBER raised its Deliveries take-rate from 18% to 19%.
Why does UBER enjoy higher take-rate? Why can it raise its take-rate faster than GRAB?
I suspect it's because consumers in South-east Asia generally have lower income and are more price-sensitive.
Competition is more intense. In Singapore alone, GRAB faces off against Gojek, TADA, Ryde, etc.
I discuss this in detail here: https://www.angsanaanderson.com/p/grab-not-as-cash-generative-as-you?r=5rl2u5
Would be interesting to hear your thoughts on this.