Revisiting All 13 Deep Dives (Part 1/2)
10 Bullish, 3 Bearish (92% Success Rate)
I began writing deep dives in September 2024. Since then, 13 deep dives have been written, at a pace of about 1 a month.
The deep dives have been largely sector-agnostic, although there is a clear bias towards e-commerce and emerging markets, which sit firmly within my circle of competence.
Performance of Deep Dives since Publication
On average, the performance since publication has been as follows:
Bullish picks: +38.7%
Bearish picks: -26.7%
SPY: +12.2% over the same period
Needless to say, I am pleased with the performance so far. However, it’s a small sample size and short time frame. In this piece, I intend to revisit all deep dives, re-evaluating if each decision made at the time was the right one, what I learned, and whether I would re-consider entering a position in any of them at this moment in time.
For consistency, this is how I will review each deep dive:
Original thesis: What I believed at the time and why
What played out: Key developments since publication
What I got right and wrong: Identifying mistakes and learnings
Decision today: Buy, hold, watch, or avoid, and why
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