I've had more time to think about this deal and also research more about Delivery Hero (parent of FoodPanda), and I've come to the conclusion that this was a very good deal made by the $GRAB team and reinforces my confidence in its capital allocation strategy.
One of the key criticisms I've had of the business was the $6B cash pile that they sat on for over a year. This, while the business continues to generate excess free cash flow each quarter (expecting about $450M in Adj. FCF in FY26).
However, in the past 6 months, they have started deploying this capital aggressively. In late 2025, they went on an AV investment spree, a $60M initial investment into Vay (with potential follow-on of up to $350M), and undisclosed investment dollars into WeRide, May Mobility and Momenta. In Feb this year, they announced the purchase of Stash Financial for $425M, and just last week, an all-cash $600M deal for FP Taiwan.
Even after all of this, Grab still sits on $5.4B in net cash as of December 2025. They're deploying aggressively, but from a position of overwhelming balance sheet strength, not levering up.
We also found out that the FP Taiwan deal was in discussions for 9 months. That means conversations likely started around June/July 2025, roughly the same time the AV investment spree kicked off. The capital allocation engine has clearly been turned on.
I would not rule out a potential deal for GoTo in the near future.
Let’s also forecast the effect of a GoTo deal. Currently, GoTo has a ~31% market share in the food delivery market in Indonesia. Hence, it would give Grab a 77% market share post-deal, dwarfing the 23% held by ShopeeFood. Gojek also has a ~40-50% market share in Indonesia. A deal would therefore give Grab an absolute monopoly in the largest SEA market.
