My Thoughts on Grab's FoodPanda Taiwan Deal

I've had more time to think about this deal and also research more about Delivery Hero (parent of FoodPanda), and I've come to the conclusion that this was a very good deal made by the $GRAB team and reinforces my confidence in its capital allocation strategy.

One of the key criticisms I've had of the business was the $6B cash pile that they sat on for over a year. This, while the business continues to generate excess free cash flow each quarter (expecting about $450M in Adj. FCF in FY26).

However, in the past 6 months, they have started deploying this capital aggressively. In late 2025, they went on an AV investment spree, a $60M initial investment into Vay (with potential follow-on of up to $350M), and undisclosed investment dollars into WeRide, May Mobility and Momenta. In Feb this year, they announced the purchase of Stash Financial for $425M, and just last week, an all-cash $600M deal for FP Taiwan.

Even after all of this, Grab still sits on $5.4B in net cash as of December 2025. They're deploying aggressively, but from a position of overwhelming balance sheet strength, not levering up.

We also found out that the FP Taiwan deal was in discussions for 9 months. That means conversations likely started around June/July 2025, roughly the same time the AV investment spree kicked off. The capital allocation engine has clearly been turned on.

I would not rule out a potential deal for GoTo in the near future.

Let’s also forecast the effect of a GoTo deal. Currently, GoTo has a ~31% market share in the food delivery market in Indonesia. Hence, it would give Grab a 77% market share post-deal, dwarfing the 23% held by ShopeeFood. Gojek also has a ~40-50% market share in Indonesia. A deal would therefore give Grab an absolute monopoly in the largest SEA market.